Why Pickaxe Mountain could become Iran’s next nuclear flashpoint - analysis

Conflicting reports and statements from U.S. President Donald Trump and intelligence sources have created uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear activities at the Pickaxe Mountain facility, potentially positioning it as a future flashpoint.

President Trump's recent remarks on the Hugh Hewitt Show presented a dichotomy: he declared, "We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready," yet in the same breath stated, "We see no activity there." This latter assertion aligns with assessments from top U.S. and Israeli defense sources who, in recent classified briefings, indicated that the facility poses no current threat. These sources suggest that targeting Pickaxe Mountain would primarily be a preemptive measure against a potential future threat, rather than addressing an immediate danger.

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We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready.

However, these assessments stand in contrast to recent reports from The Wall Street Journal and CNN. These outlets cited Israeli intelligence, which reportedly informed the U.S. that Iran has transferred thousands of centrifuges and enriched uranium to the Pickaxe Mountain site. At press time, sources who had previously told The Jerusalem Post that there was no current threat at the facility had not clarified this discrepancy despite attempts to get to the bottom of the dispute.

For years, the Post has inquired about Pickaxe Mountain, receiving indications as recently as June 30 that it was not a top priority for the Israeli defense establishment. A significant reason for the U.S. and Israel's reluctance to strike the facility to date stems from lessons learned at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility. Despite U.S. efforts in June 2025 to destroy Fordow, intelligence indicated that Iran could dig even deeper, rendering even advanced bunker-busting weapons potentially ineffective. The Post first reported on Iran's construction of Pickaxe Mountain, noting its deeper location than Fordow, in 2021. While still not considered operational, concerns persist about its viability for destruction from the air, especially if Iran succeeds in moving critical nuclear assets there, creating a "zone of immunity."

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We see no activity there.