IRGC unveil new map of Strait of Hormuz as shipping remains at standstill

Amidst heightened regional tensions and ongoing disruptions to maritime trade, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy has released a new map delineating its claimed area of control within the Strait of Hormuz. This move by the IRGC comes as shipping traffic remains at a standstill, with commercial vessels hesitant to transit the vital waterway due to security concerns and a lack of clarity on safe passage procedures. The map's precise implications for the extent of Iranian control are yet to be fully assessed, but it underscores Iran's assertive posture in this strategic region.

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Without consent from Iran to let commercial ships transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz, it is currently not clear whether the Iranian threat to ships can be degraded or suppressed.

The situation on the ground reflects the ongoing challenges. Despite pronouncements from US Central Command about efforts to restore freedom of navigation, data shows minimal vessel traffic. German shipping group Hapag-Lloyd has stated that transit remains impossible for its vessels, highlighting the pervasive uncertainty. The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) has also noted that the overall security situation remains unchanged, emphasizing that without Iranian consent for safe passage, the threats to shipping cannot be effectively degraded.

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The maritime security threat level in the Strait remained "critical," advising mariners to consider routing via Omani territorial waters south of the traffic separation scheme.

From our perspective, the IRGC's issuance of a new map is a clear signal of Iran's intent to maintain and assert its influence over the Strait of Hormuz. While the US-led coalition speaks of defensive missions and diplomatic coordination, Iran's actions, including warnings to the US Navy and the publication of its control map, demonstrate a distinct approach to maritime security in the region. The International Maritime Organization reports that hundreds of commercial vessels and thousands of seafarers have been impacted by the ongoing conflict, underscoring the critical need for de-escalation and clear communication to ensure the safety and unimpeded flow of global commerce through this essential maritime artery.

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Iran, meanwhile, warned the US Navy to stay out of the Hormuz and said commercial vessels would need to coordinate any passage with its military.