Is China’s climate returning to that of Tang dynasty golden age? Experts warn of a trap

In China's arid northwest, local state media in the Ningxia Hui autonomous region are heralding a surge of rainfall, celebrating it as a return to the climate of the Tang Dynasty's golden age. The Ningxia Broadcasting News Centre reported last month that the northward movement of the rain belt would bring "climate dividends," promising that "loess soil will turn green and farming area will expand."

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climate dividends

The reports frame the shift of the 400mm precipitation line, a crucial boundary separating China's arid grazing lands from its humid, agricultural heartland, as "heavenly fortune." During the Tang Dynasty "warm period," temperatures in northern China were reportedly 1 to 2 degrees Celsius higher than today, with the Ningxia region serving as a granary north of the Great Wall. The broadcaster stated on social media on July 21 that "the warming and greening of northwest China is not accidental but the restart of a millennia-long climate cycle."

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loess soil will turn green and farming area will expand

However, this optimistic portrayal is met with caution from experts who warn of a potential trap. While the media celebrates the "warm and humid climate comparable to the prosperous Tang dynasty," and highlights Ningxia as the "most vivid example of this benefit," the underlying implications of such a significant climate shift are a cause for concern. The article contrasts this celebration with a report of a flash flood at a northwest China camping site that killed 10 people and injured 23, suggesting that the benefits of increased rainfall may not be universally positive or without risk.

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The warming and greening of northwest China is not accidental but the restart of a millennia-long climate cycle.