Is Croatia on the path to autocracy?

Recent reports from international institutions, including Sweden's V-Dem Institute and the Civil Liberties Union for Europe, have raised serious concerns about Croatia's democratic trajectory, suggesting a slide towards autocracy. These assessments, which place Croatia alongside countries like Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia within the EU, have been met with a mix of dismissal and outright rejection from Zagreb. The government has largely ignored the findings or accused the organizations of harboring left-wing biases, while the political opposition has eagerly seized upon these external critiques as validation of their long-standing accusations against the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).

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I would say that this is a combination of socioeconomic differences that affect the quality of life of European citizens, and the collapse of consensus on some foundations of the democratic order and the need to protect them.

The opposition points to a pattern of alleged political interference in the judiciary, pressure on media outlets, including the public broadcaster, and the subjugation of parliamentary oversight to executive power as evidence supporting these claims. Compounding these concerns are Croatia's persistently poor economic indicators within the EU, marked by high inflation and a low industrial contribution to GDP. These factors, critics argue, contribute to a declining quality of life and erode the foundations of democratic order, raising questions about whether the liberal democratic framework itself has inherent flaws or if key safeguards have simply failed.

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And as for the second, at the European level, this is reflected in the decreasing interest of the European Commission in doing its job and protecting the interests of the EU and its fundamental treaties.

As noted by political scientist Dario Čepo, the situation is likely a confluence of socioeconomic disparities impacting citizens' lives and a broader breakdown in consensus regarding the fundamental tenets of democracy. He also highlights a disturbing trend at the European level: the weakening of the European Commission's role in upholding EU treaties and interests. Crucially, Čepo points to the crumbling 'sanitary cordon' between mainstream centrist parties and the far-right, observing an increasing willingness among center-right parties to collaborate with ultranationalists and neo-fascists. This, he argues, is largely driven by the European People's Party's (EPP) relentless pursuit of power at any cost, a strategy that has normalized previously unacceptable political alliances and further blurred the lines of democratic discourse in Croatia and beyond.

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I would point out the importance of the 'sanitary corridor' between mainstream political parties, i.e., centrist parties – and the far-right. He points out that the willingness of center-right parties to cooperate with ultranationalists and neo-fascists is increasingly pronounced.