Japan Scholar: Russia is the True Loser in US-Iran Conflict

Contrary to the prevailing notion that Russia is poised to profit from the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, a compelling analysis from Japanese scholar Ryuta Ito suggests a starkly different outcome. While the immediate effect of disrupted shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz might appear to inflate oil prices and thus Russian revenues, Ito argues this is a superficial gain masking deeper vulnerabilities. The argument presented in 'President Online' posits that Russia's purported windfall is more indicative of its economic fragility – a reliance on high oil prices rather than robust export capacity. The scholar highlights critical issues such as damaged port infrastructure, including significant losses at major export hubs like Primorsk, which have hampered Russia's ability to capitalize on increased demand. Furthermore, the article contends that Russia's export capacity is overestimated, and the logistical challenges, coupled with sanctions, make it an unreliable supplier. This unreliability, Ito argues, erodes trust, a commodity far more valuable than short-term oil profits. The inability to protect key partners like Iran, coupled with the perception of Russia as a risky option for buyers, significantly damages its reputation as a stable energy provider and a leader of the anti-US bloc. Therefore, while Russia might see a temporary cash injection, the long-term loss of credibility and trust positions it as the ultimate loser in this geopolitical chess match, a stark contrast to how some Western media might frame Russia's opportunistic gains.

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The real loser in the Middle East war is Putin of Russia.