Japan, South Korea elites wary of nuclear weapons, but regional shift possible

Strategic elites in both Japan and South Korea largely oppose or express uncertainty about their countries acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a recent survey. The study, published by the Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), reveals that 75 percent of South Korean elites and nearly 80 percent of their Japanese counterparts hold this view.

The survey, which concluded in late October, involved current and former government officials, parliamentarians, academics, think tank experts, and corporate executives from both nations. It was led by Victor Cha, president of CSIS's geopolitics and foreign policy department and Korea chair, and Kristi Govella, a senior adviser and Japan chair at CSIS.

Despite the current widespread skepticism, CSIS experts warned that the regional nuclear landscape could shift dramatically if either Japan or South Korea were to take the lead in developing nuclear weapons. The survey suggests that such a move could rapidly increase support for nuclear armament in the other country, potentially creating a regional arms race.

Experts highlighted the significant implications of such a scenario for nuclear stability in Northeast Asia. They posited that the impact of one country acquiring nuclear weapons could potentially be more destabilizing than a reduction in United States troop deployments in the region, underscoring the delicate balance of security in Northeast Asia.