Mexico's Inflation Surprises Again, Falling to 3.10% in Early July

Mexico's inflation rate continued its surprising downward trend, falling to 3.10% in the first half of July. This marks the second consecutive period where inflation has fallen more than anticipated, offering a welcome sign for the economy.

The primary driver behind this deceleration was a significant drop in the prices of agricultural products. Fruits and vegetables saw a collective decrease of 1.50%, with specific items like tomatoes falling by 13.18% and avocados reversing previous gains with a 2.59% reduction. Other goods and services contributing to the slowdown included lower hotel rates and a decrease in the cost of automobiles.

However, the inflation picture is not uniformly positive. As the summer vacation period begins and following the FIFA World Cup, prices for air travel and package tours have surged by 12.44% and 6.22%, respectively. Additionally, with the back-to-school season approaching, the cost of computers has risen by 4.52%. Food service establishments like loncherías and fondas have adjusted their prices upward, with increases of 0.12% and 0.18% for restaurants.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that the monthly inflation rate for the first half of July was 0.07%. The annual inflation rate of 3.10% compares favorably to the 3.55% recorded in the same period of 2025. While some regions like Morelos experienced higher inflation, others such as Chiapas saw negative price variations.