Moraes becomes the central figure of September 7, but only the ballot box will decide the STF’s future

The chants said it plainly: “Out, Moraes.” At the September 7 demonstration on São Paulo’s Avenida Paulista, support for Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça competed with attacks on Alexandre de Moraes. The court’s crisis became the main issue at a rally organized by Flávio Bolsonaro, just weeks before the presidential election.

The event drew far fewer people than expected, but Flávio has managed to move attention away from the controversy surrounding Dark Horse, a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. He has even gained ground in the polls, a development that concerns the campaign of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term.

Flávio asked banker Daniel Vorcaro, the owner of Banco Master, for 134 million reais, saying he needed the money to finance the film. But monitoring by AP Exata found that the controversy surrounding Moraes had become more visible to voters. Between September 1 and the report’s publication, the company recorded a sharp rise in negative mentions of Moraes on X and Instagram, especially in comparisons involving Mendonça, his rival within the court.

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The adoption of André Mendonça as the right’s banner gives the left an argument to present the crisis as a partisan dispute within the Supreme Court.

“The adoption of André Mendonça as the right’s banner gives the left an argument to present the crisis as a partisan dispute within the Supreme Court,” said Sergio Denicoli, AP Exata’s chief executive. He added that the dynamic mobilized the governing camp and helped prevent the damage associated with Moraes from spreading to Lula.

In Denicoli’s assessment, the Paulista demonstrations reinforced the right’s mobilization, but there was no evidence that pressure from the streets had changed the balance of forces. The article portrays the court as locked in an internal struggle that is spilling into the broader political system. Lula is trying to broker an agreement between its factions, while Flávio is calling for the impeachment of Supreme Court justices. At the September 7 ceremony, STF President Edson Fachin told Lula he had been working seven days a week, but the crisis remained unresolved. The article’s conclusion is stark: the October vote, not the demonstrations, will determine the court’s future.

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This dynamic mobilizes the governing base and helps contain the transfer of Moraes’s damage to Lula.