Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff scenario

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 41% in a simulated second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, according to a Quaest poll released Monday.

The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Quaest interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older nationwide from Thursday through Sunday. The poll was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-01720/2026.

Lula led the first-round field with 36% of voting intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, at 29%. Writer Augusto Cury, of Avante, received 8%. Renan Santos received 3%, Ronaldo Caiado 3%, Romeu Zema 2% and Samara Martins 1%. Ten percent were undecided, while 8% said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or would not vote.

The first-round numbers showed little change from the previous poll, released on Sept. 2, when Lula had 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro 30%. In the runoff, Lula had led 42% to 41% in that earlier survey. In August, the two also appeared technically tied, at 43% for Lula and 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

The poll excluded influencer Pablo Marçal from its main scenario. Although he is ineligible until 2032, he obtained a preliminary electoral court order allowing him to join the Liberal Party and registered his presidential candidacy. The case will go before the Superior Electoral Court. In a scenario including Marçal, Flávio remained at 29%, while the other candidates’ figures stayed unchanged and undecided voters fell from 10% to 9%.