Quaest poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in a runoff, while Cury falls to 8% in the first round

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 41% in a hypothetical second-round matchup, according to a new Quaest poll, while Lula retains a lead in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential race.

Lula received 36% of first-round preferences, compared with 29% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Presidential candidate Augusto Cury fell to 8%, from 10% in the previous week, a movement within the poll’s margin of error. The result interrupted a rise recorded earlier in the month, when Cury had gained eight percentage points from the August survey.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 3 to 6, during a crisis at Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court. In the previous survey, conducted before clashes between justices André Mendonça and Alexandre de Moraes, Lula had 37% and Flávio 30%. In the runoff scenario, Lula had led 42% to 41%. The new figures erase that difference for the first time since March, when the two candidates also stood at the same level.

The first-round scenario included Pablo Marçal, who received 1%. Marçal has registered his candidacy but is ineligible. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each had 3%, Romeu Zema had 2%, and Samara Martins had 1%. Other candidates did not register support. Undecided voters accounted for 9%, while 8% chose blank or invalid votes.

Quaest conducted 2,004 in-home interviews. The poll’s margin of error was two percentage points.