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🇸🇬 Singapore /Conflict & Security

Myanmar remains ASEAN’s elephant in the room

From The Straits Times · (4h ago) English Mixed tone

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

TLDR

  • ASEAN leaders are unlikely to change their stance on Myanmar at the upcoming summit, likely reiterating support for a five-year-old peace plan.
  • Some observers worry this signals a gradual acceptance of Myanmar's military government, despite activists' hopes for a harder line.
  • Myanmar's military government has taken steps like moving Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest, which some ASEAN members might see as sufficient for engagement, while others maintain the Five-Point Consensus conditions are unmet.

The upcoming ASEAN Summit in Cebu presents a familiar dilemma for the regional bloc: how to handle Myanmar's persistent political crisis. While the energy crisis may dominate headlines, the question of Myanmar's reintegration into the fold, or at least its engagement, lingers.

ASEAN's official stance, embodied in the Five-Point Consensus, remains largely unchanged since the 2021 coup. This plan, calling for an end to violence and humanitarian aid, has seen little progress. Yet, the recent 'election' and the move of Aung San Suu Kyi to house arrest present a complex picture. For some member states, these actions might be interpreted as gestures towards compliance, potentially paving the way for a softer approach.

activists are hoping the Philippines can build on the work of the previous chair Malaysia, which had taken a more hardline approach than Manila so far, to first ensure that humanitarian aid reaches those on the ground and second, to not recognise the military government.

— Ms Khin OhmarA Myanmar human rights activist and founder of civil society network Progressive Voice, commenting on the Philippines' role as ASEAN chair.

This situation is particularly sensitive for Myanmar's pro-democracy activists. They had hoped the Philippines, as the current chair, would adopt a firmer stance, building on Malaysia's previous hardline approach. Their focus remains on ensuring humanitarian aid reaches the ground and, crucially, on not recognizing the legitimacy of the military government. The activists' concerns highlight the deep divisions within ASEAN and the differing priorities of its member states.

From a regional perspective, the situation is fraught with complexity. Countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Timor Leste emphasize the need for substantive change aligned with the 5PC, pointing to the ongoing civil war. Conversely, nations such as Thailand, with its extensive border with Myanmar, appear more inclined towards engagement, viewing recent developments as potentially sufficient for a shift in ASEAN's posture. This divergence underscores the challenge ASEAN faces in forging a unified policy towards a member state in crisis, balancing diplomatic engagement with the principles of non-interference and the aspirations of its people.

What they’re (Myanmar government) trying to do is to assist those who want to bring Myanmar back fully into the ASEAN fold, like Thailand.

— Mr Barry DeskerDistinguished fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, commenting on Myanmar's recent moves.
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Originally published by The Straits Times. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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