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New Poll Shows U.S. Voters Leaning Democratic as Trump Approval Continues to Fall

From Republika · () Indonesian

Translated from Indonesian and summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

News Documents & data Ongoing story
  • Gallup data show 49% of independent U.S. voters leaning Democratic, compared with 39% leaning Republican, giving Democrats their widest advantage since 2008, according to The New York Times.
  • The share of voters identifying as Democrats rose to 31% from 28% when Donald Trump began his second term, while most voters still identify with neither major party.
  • Trump’s declining approval ratings, inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and concerns over Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions are adding pressure on Republicans before the November midterms.

Independent voters in the United States are moving toward the Democratic Party ahead of the November midterm elections, according to the latest quarterly Gallup political-affiliation data. Among people who identify with neither major party, 49% said they leaned Democratic, while 39% leaned Republican.

The Democratic advantage among independents has grown by four percentage points since the first quarter of 2025, when Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term. The shift also appears among voters who directly identify with a party. Democrats now account for 31% of voters nationally, up from 28% when Trump took office, although most voters still do not identify as either Republican or Democrat.

The figures give Democrats their largest advantage over Republicans since 2008, The New York Times reported. They also show a nine-point decline since the fourth quarter of 2022 among independent voters who lean Republican, a change that could make it harder for Republican candidates to attract moderate voters.

Trump’s approval rating has continued to fall during his second term, adding to Republican concerns before the midterms. He campaigned heavily on the high cost of living under former President Joe Biden, but inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target since the conflict in Iran began in February. Voters have increasingly cited tensions in the Middle East and higher costs linked to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for their reduced support.

Republicans are hoping prominent Democratic socialists, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul el Sayed, will help them in closely contested areas. The Republican National Committee held a campaign-style convention in Texas this week to promote what it called a contest between “common sense versus insanity.” Gallup’s survey used a combined random sample of more than 3,000 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of two percentage points.

common sense versus insanity

· Republican National CommitteeThe phrase was used to frame the political contrast promoted at the committee’s Texas convention.
About this summary

Originally published by Republika in Indonesian. Translated, summarized, and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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