Now govern, if you can

The AfD has won the Saxony-Anhalt state election by a wide margin, producing what the article describes as a political earthquake with a score of 9.0. Its message, the writer says, is that xenophobic nationalists are once again considered acceptable by large parts of the population.

Whether AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund can actually become minister-president remains unclear because of the complicated balance of seats. Cooperation with Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW is one possibility. Another is support from CDU defectors. Siegmund has even raised the prospect of new elections.

If Siegmund does take office, the article predicts an immediate clash with reality. Many of the AfD’s campaign promises have been described by experts as too expensive, constitutionally impermissible or legally questionable. The writer says the party would then blame the established parties, the federal government, the media, migrants or other supposed dark forces.

AfD leader Tino Chrupalla offered an early example of that narrative by saying the new minister-president would first need to conduct a review of the state’s finances. The article notes that the state budget is publicly available online and calls this style of argument populism.

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU, the result is described as a debacle. After AfD gains in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the writer sees further evidence that the Union’s base is eroding. The CDU now faces two bad options: replacing Merz without any guarantee of improvement, or keeping him while political pressure and the problems facing the coalition with the SPD continue to grow.

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The new minister-president must first conduct a review of the finances.