Obi, Kwakwanso can’t stop Tinubu’s re-election, says ex-Ogun lawmaker

The political discourse in Nigeria is heating up as the 2027 general elections draw closer, with former federal lawmaker Kayode Oladele weighing in on potential opposition alliances. Oladele has publicly downplayed the electoral viability of a joint presidential ticket involving Peter Obi, the Labour Party's candidate in 2023, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State.

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Nigerian presidential politics goes beyond regional enthusiasm, stressing that “national electoral victory is built on tested structures, broad alliances, grassroots coordination and institutional depth”.

Oladele contends that while such a combination might generate buzz among opposition circles, it fundamentally lacks the robust political architecture, nationwide reach, and organizational depth required to unseat an incumbent government like President Bola Tinubu's. He articulated that Nigerian presidential politics transcends mere regional enthusiasm, demanding instead a foundation built on tested structures, broad coalitions, and deep grassroots coordination.

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while Obi recorded notable support among young and urban voters in the 2023 presidential election and Kwankwaso maintained influence in Kano and parts of the North through the Kwankwasiyya movement, both men remain largely dominant within separate political constituencies whose merger may not automatically produce national success.

From Oladele's perspective, the All Progressives Congress (APC) remains the dominant political force due to its entrenched national presence and extensive network, bolstered by its control of over 30 states through serving governors. He highlighted that governors are pivotal for political mobilization, voter turnout, and party discipline, giving the APC a substantial electoral edge. Oladele's analysis suggests that merging personalities without addressing underlying structural weaknesses is unlikely to yield a winning national alternative, underscoring the enduring significance of established party machinery and leadership strategy in Nigerian politics.

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The ruling party’s control of over 30 states through serving governors gives it a major electoral edge that would be difficult for any opposition coalition to neutralise.