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As Russia prepares to mark its annual Victory Day parade on May 9, the Kremlin has declared a unilateral two-day ceasefire with Ukraine, set to begin at midnight. This move, ostensibly to ensure the safety of its patriotic celebrations commemorating the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany, comes after Moscow ignored a Ukrainian ceasefire earlier this week. The timing and nature of this ceasefire raise questions about its sincerity and strategic intent, particularly given Russia's ongoing military operations.

Adding a layer of tension, Russian security services have issued warnings to foreign diplomats in Kyiv, explicitly stating that any Ukrainian strikes on Russian cities during the May 9 commemorations will be met with retaliation. This threat underscores the heightened security concerns surrounding the event, especially in light of recent Ukrainian drone attacks that have reached deep into Russian territory, even as far as the Ural Mountains. The Kremlin has also cited a "terrorist threat" from Ukraine as a reason for increased security measures.

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“Yes, we are talking about the 8th and 9th of May,”

From our perspective, the scaling back of this year's May 9 parade, including the removal of military hardware for the first time in nearly two decades, is a significant indicator of the war's impact on Russia. While the official narrative focuses on security threats, the reduced scale of the event, coupled with the aggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine, reflects the Kremlin's efforts to manage both domestic and international perceptions amidst a protracted conflict. The declared ceasefire, while seemingly a gesture of goodwill, is viewed with caution, as it coincides with a major nationalistic event and follows a pattern of actions that have consistently prioritized Russian security and military objectives over de-escalation.

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Peskov said Russian security services were preparing for Saturday’s event, “particularly given the terrorist threat” from Ukraine.