On Sept. 7, poll shows Flávio stalled as Lula goes into reverse

The latest Quaest poll brings a troubling message for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: Flávio Bolsonaro has not gained ground, but Lula has lost it. Twenty-four days before the election, the two are tied numerically at 41% apiece in a projected second-round matchup, with Lula showing a downward trend.

Lula received 45% in July and has shed one percentage point in each successive Quaest survey. He is now approaching 40% in the runoff scenario, a decline that has turned his former advantage into a real possibility of being overtaken in the coming weeks.

The main obstacle is the government’s approval rating. Expectations that it would improve by this stage of the campaign have not been met. Disapproval reached 50%, while approval fell to 43%, creating a seven-point gap that has alarmed Lula’s campaign team.

Violence remains voters’ top concern, while corruption has returned to second place amid the Master and INSS controversies. But Felipe Nunes, a Quaest professor, told GloboNews that the government is also struggling because of the economy. He focused not on fiscal crisis or public debt, but on household indebtedness, an issue that affects family finances and voters’ daily perceptions.

Lula is also losing support among women, his largest and traditionally most loyal electorate. Independent voters are not showing a clear intention to move toward him in a second round, while supporters of other candidates appear more likely to oppose him. On Sept. 7, several rivals attacked Lula, the Supreme Court and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos and Romeu Zema. The article argues that the direction of the polling curves matters more than the individual percentages, and that Lula’s favoritism is steadily fading as the election nears.

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The possibility of being overtaken by Flávio in the next rounds, or weeks, is real.