Panama forecasts up to 55% rainfall deficit due to El Niño in second half of year

Panama is bracing for a significant rainfall deficit of up to 55% and a temperature rise of 1-3 degrees Celsius between July and December, as the El Niño phenomenon intensifies.

The Panamanian Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMHPA) reported that over 95% of international climate models forecast El Niño's continued presence in the coming months. The IMHPA has identified 1997, 2002, and 2023 as analogous years, exhibiting atmospheric behavior similar to the first half of 2026, a period when El Niño episodes typically escalate to strong or very strong intensity by autumn.

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more than 95% of international climate forecast models predict that the phenomenon will persist during the coming months.

El Niño, a climate pattern known for causing droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others, is expected to impact Panama's water resources. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States also confirmed the phenomenon's presence.

These climatic shifts are already prompting action at the Panama Canal. Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta announced that the canal anticipates a reduction in ship draft to 44 feet by summer 2027, extending the impact of El Niño into next year. "We are implementing measures earlier than in 2023 to try to minimize the impact on our clients," Espino de Marotta stated. The canal has already begun a gradual draft reduction from the current 49.5 feet, with further decreases planned.

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We are implementing measures earlier than in 2023 to try to minimize the impact on our clients