PiS shifts stance on Ukraine, voters move to Braun

Poland's dominant Law and Justice (PiS) party has significantly altered its rhetoric regarding Ukraine, a stark contrast to its strong pro-Ukraine stance in the initial phase of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. While PiS leaders like Jarosław Kaczyński once spoke of building a powerful new relationship between their nations, the party's messaging has hardened considerably.

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We need cooperation that builds a bond between our nations. A bond that has truly powerful foundations. History was varied, it was often really very difficult, but today there is a full chance to create something completely new, a new quality not only in relations between our states, but perhaps also in European relations, and consequently, also in European geopolitics.

Recent statements from PiS figures illustrate this shift. In July 2026, Przemysław Czarnek, a PiS candidate for prime minister, suggested halting military aid to Ukraine until it revises its historical policies. He also invoked narratives about resurgent Nazism in Ukraine, echoing Russian talking points, a stance even Kaczyński distanced himself from. Party deputy leader Tobiasz Bocheński announced in early August that a PiS government would prioritize deporting Ukrainian men of conscription age who are not legally employed in Poland.

Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, in a July post on X, defended the party's past support as a strategic "transaction: iron for blood," arguing it bought Poland crucial time for rearmament. He contended that while early aid was operationally vital, additional equipment in the current positional warfare phase has less impact. He likened sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine to giving away Poland's "lightning rod."

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military aid to Ukraine must be suspended until the country changes its historical policy.

The Koalicja Obywatelska (Civic Coalition) has also adjusted its tone, criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a decision to name a military unit after the UPA, a historical Ukrainian nationalist organization involved in the Volhynia massacres. Although Prime Minister Donald Tusk has generally moderated anti-Ukrainian sentiment, he suggested on the anniversary of the "Bloody Sunday" massacre that Ukraine must account for its historical crimes before joining the European Union.

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One of the first, more significant decisions of the government will be the decision to deport Ukrainian men of conscription age who do not work legally in Poland.

This evolving political discourse suggests a strategic recalibration by major Polish parties, potentially influenced by domestic electoral considerations and a perceived shift in the war's dynamics. The change in tone may be contributing to a fragmentation of the electorate, with some voters reportedly gravitating towards more nationalist or explicitly anti-Ukrainian platforms, such as that of Grzegorz Braun.

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Our policy towards Ukraine was not 'serving' anyone. It was a transaction: iron for blood. An insurance policy that we could finally afford, thanks to the healing of Polish public finances by the PiS government. (...) I do not regret a single piece of equipment that we sent there, because it bought Poland the most valuable resource – time for armament and security for our citizens.