Poland, Baltics Boost Infrastructure Security Over Russian 'False Flag' Attack Fears

Poland and the Baltic states are bolstering security around dams, power plants, and natural gas infrastructure amid growing concerns that Russia may stage a "false flag" attack. Lithuania announced last week that Moscow is considering such a staged incident. Poland, Latvia, and Estonia have also warned of potential sabotage aimed at testing NATO's response, particularly as doubts arise about the United States' commitment to its security obligations.

Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov dismissed these warnings last month as "scary stories" used to justify militarization against Russia. However, Poland and the three Baltic nations, all bordering Russia and having previously detected Ukrainian drones on their territory, are taking no chances. They are enhancing precautionary measures, with Lithuania's Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas stating, "We are not naive – we follow the information, we know how to read between the lines and we are doing our homework." He added that they are increasing critical infrastructure protection and constantly exchanging information with intelligence services.

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We are not naive – we follow the information, we know how to read between the lines and we are doing our homework. We are increasing critical infrastructure protection and constantly exchanging information with intelligence services about further measures.

Latvia's Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs confirmed that his country has stepped up security for critical infrastructure, noting, "The risk of potential hybrid threats is currently higher than before." This comes after Russia accused the Baltic states in May of planning to allow Ukrainian drones to attack Russia from their territory, vowing retaliation. The Baltic states denied these accusations and protested, while simultaneously raising fears that Moscow itself might stage an attack to create a pretext for a response.

Intelligence from a Baltic security official suggests that Russian military and internal security services are planning a potential staged attack on infrastructure in Russia, the Baltic states, or Poland, using Ukrainian-made drones. Such an operation could be executed within days of approval from the Russian leadership, including President Vladimir Putin. The official expressed greater concern not about the immediate consequences of such an attack, but about the "political chaos" it could unleash as NATO allies debate their response. Another regional official, however, urged caution, acknowledging the impact of allied intelligence warnings but noting that potential attacks might occur "at any moment or never."

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The risk of potential hybrid threats is currently higher than before.