Polish Economy Forecasts Stable Growth Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Forecasts for the Polish economy suggest a period of sustained, albeit moderate, growth, with little change from earlier predictions. The median forecast for GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 hovers around 3.5% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown to 3.3% expected in the first quarter of 2027. These predictions, compiled from over 30 institutions including banks and economic organizations, indicate a robust economic outlook for Poland.

Economists highlight the Polish economy's resilience in the face of global market volatility, elevated energy prices, and general uncertainty. This stability is significantly bolstered by strong investment dynamics, largely independent of external factors. Key drivers include the cumulative effect of EU funds, particularly from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (KPO), standard EU funding cycles, and increased defense expenditures.

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The current data from the Polish economy indicate that it is performing quite well in the face of unexpected disruptions in global markets, higher energy commodity prices, and increased general uncertainty.

Some analysts anticipate double-digit investment growth by the end of the year, though the median forecast for the fourth quarter is a slightly lower 9.5% year-on-year. Private consumption forecasts have seen minor downward revisions, but are still projected to grow at a healthy pace. Despite a recent increase in inflation, which peaked at 3.1% year-on-year in April, measures like the CPN program and falling food prices have helped to curb its momentum.

With projected average quarterly inflation around 2.9-3.2% over the next year, real wages are expected to grow by approximately 2-3% year-on-year. While this is slower than in 2024-2025, it is sufficient to support household consumption growth of around 3%. Furthermore, Polish households maintain a relatively high savings rate, about 9% of income, which is double the pre-pandemic level, suggesting financial stability for many families.

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Nominal wage dynamics around the current 6%, even with prospects for slight deceleration, are still sufficient for households to feel a real improvement in their purchasing power.