Polish transport sector sees slight improvement but faces profitability challenges

The Polish transport, shipping, and logistics sector saw a marginal improvement in its business climate index for the third quarter of 2026, reaching 47.7 points. This marks the first increase after three consecutive quarters of decline, yet the sector remains below the 50-point mark, which separates conditions favorable for development from unfavorable ones.

Sales forecasts show the most significant improvement, with 13% of TSL (Transport, Shipping, Logistics) companies expecting sales growth, up from 3% in the previous quarter. "This is a good sign, as demand is the primary driver for improving sentiment in transport and logistics," noted Silvestr Ochrimovic, CEO of Truck Care. However, this improved outlook is not yet translating into investments. Companies remain highly selective, carefully calculating the profitability of orders, fleet, and financing costs. Major purchasing decisions are made only when they offer a quick boost to operational efficiency.

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This is a good sign, as demand is the primary driver for improving sentiment in transport and logistics.

Investment plans reflect this caution. Only 14% of TSL companies intend to increase capital expenditure, a decrease from 18% in the second quarter of 2026. Furthermore, 31% of businesses anticipate a decline in investments, while 55% expect them to remain at their current level. "Decisions regarding fleets, equipment, or operational infrastructure remain heavily dependent on current profitability, financing costs, and order predictability," Ochrimovic explained. "In practice, investments will likely concentrate on projects that directly reduce costs or enhance operational efficiency."

Despite these challenges, vehicle registration data offers a mixed picture. July saw a 14.2% year-on-year increase in semi-trailer truck registrations, and a 28.2% rise over the first seven months. However, this indicates a gradual cooling of demand. Similarly, trailer registrations in July were up 4.7% year-on-year, but with a slower growth dynamic than in the first seven months (7.5%). Rafał Kwiecień, CEO of Regesta, highlighted that profitability remains a key issue for road transport firms. He pointed to rising costs, with the average diesel price in the EU increasing by 26% in the first quarter to 1.96 euros per liter, and road tolls for a standard Euro VI combination in Poland rising by 33% in the same period.

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Decisions regarding fleets, equipment, or operational infrastructure remain heavily dependent on current profitability, financing costs, and order predictability. In practice, investments will likely concentrate on projects that directly reduce costs or enhance operational efficiency.