Poll shows tight race for Bahia governor between ACM Neto and Jerônimo Rodrigues

The race for the governorship of Bahia is too close to call, with a new poll revealing a technical tie between leading candidates ACM Neto and Jerônimo Rodrigues. According to the Quaest survey released Thursday, former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of União Brasil holds 39% of voter intentions, while the incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party (PT) garners 37%. The poll, which surveyed 900 voters, indicates a tight contest with a margin of error of three percentage points.

Should the election proceed to a second round, the narrow gap between the two frontrunners is expected to persist. In a hypothetical runoff, ACM Neto edges out Jerônimo Rodrigues with 44% of the vote compared to Rodrigues' 41%. However, a significant portion of voters remain undecided, with 9% indicating they are unsure and 6% planning to cast blank or null votes, suggesting that the final outcome could still shift.

The survey also shed light on the senatorial race, where former governor Rui Costa (PT) leads with 23% of voter intentions. Senator Jaques Wagner, also from the PT, follows with 17%. The opposition's candidates, former minister João Roma (PL) and Senator Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), trail with 7% and 5% respectively. The dynamics of this election are shaped by the repeat of the 2022 contest between Jerônimo and ACM Neto, now influenced by a unified opposition and the PT's strategy to nationalize the race.

Both campaigns are employing distinct strategies. The PT is seeking to leverage national support for President Lula, aiming to solidify its dominance in Bahia. ACM Neto, who maintained neutrality in the 2022 national election, is now signaling support for Ronaldo Caiado but focusing primarily on state-level issues to avoid direct confrontation with President Lula. This contrasts with 2022, when the PL ran independently, whereas now the major opposition parties are united in Bahia, bolstered by figures like Senator Angelo Coronel.