Powered by its anti-Supreme Court agenda, Bolsonaro’s PL leads Senate race, with Lula’s PT behind

Bolsonaro-aligned candidates have taken an early lead in Brazil’s Senate race, propelled by a campaign against Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. If voters went to the polls today and Quaest’s polling translated into results, Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, or PL, would win 14 of the 54 seats contested in October.

The Workers’ Party, or PT, follows with a projected nine seats. The Brazilian Democratic Movement, or MDB, stands at seven, while the Progressives, or PP, has five. Estadão’s estimate covers the Federal District and 24 states where Quaest has conducted polling since the campaign began. Ceará and Piauí were excluded because they do not yet have updated figures.

The North is emerging as the PL’s strongest region. Six of its candidates lead their state polls: Eduardo Gomes in Tocantins, Márcio Bittar in Acre, Nicoletti in Roraima and Capitão Alberto Neto in Amazonas, along with two candidates in Rondônia. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Reinaldo Azambuja leads with 22% and Capitão Contar has 15%. In Rondônia, Dr. Fernando Máximo leads with 17%, while Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid has 11% and is tied with PP candidate Sílvia Cristina.

Michelle Bolsonaro has the PL’s widest lead, with 25% support in the Federal District. She is followed by Leila do Vôlei of the Democratic Labour Party at 17% and PT candidate Erika Kokay at 12%. But the early standings are far from secure. Senate races are often decided closer to election day, and an average of 22% of voters remain undecided, reaching 37% in Rio Grande do Sul. In Amapá, where Podemos candidate Rayssa Furlan leads with 27%, just 11% remain undecided.

Several PL candidates still face strong competition. Carlos Bolsonaro has 16% in Santa Catarina, behind PP candidate Esperidião Amin at 19%, while fellow PL candidate Carol De Toni has 12%. The source notes that even candidates currently leading, apart from Azambuja, Máximo and Alberto Neto, remain vulnerable to challengers.