Russia could leverage US-China war to shift Europe's balance, analysts warn

European NATO allies must fundamentally reassess their defense and deterrence strategies concerning Russia, as simply mirroring U.S. military capabilities is an insufficient approach. A major crisis or war between the United States and China would drastically alter the strategic landscape for all of Europe, according to analysts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the UK's leading defense and security think tank.

The current NATO plans, largely focused on repelling a potential Russian occupation of the Baltic states and subsequent liberation, may prove inadequate. Analysts suggest Russia possesses the capability to operate on a broader scale, potentially aiming to shift the power balance in Europe or support China. They emphasize that Russia's behavior is influenced by a global context, allowing Moscow to pursue its objectives if U.S. attention is diverted.

Should a profound crisis or full-scale war erupt between the U.S. and China in the Indo-Pacific, it would not only reduce American resources available for Europe but also radically change the conditions for deterring Russia. The analysts posit that Russia's most advantageous scenario in a U.S.-China conflict would not be territorial expansion in Europe. Instead, Moscow might focus on ensuring China's victory, anticipating that European issues could be resolved later under conditions favorable to Russia.

In such a scenario, Europe's primary mission should shift from merely preparing to repel an attack on the Baltics. The focus should be on "immobilizing" Russian forces, particularly the Northern Fleet's submarines and long-range strike assets, within the European theater. This would prevent Russia from redirecting these assets eastward. The strategy should move beyond regional denial to risk manipulation and cost imposition, aiming to convince Moscow that war would be unpredictable and disadvantageous for its elite, rather than purely militarily unwinnable.