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Russia expert: The crack is the beginning of the end for Putin
🇸🇪 Sweden /Conflict & Security

Russia expert: The crack is the beginning of the end for Putin

From Dagens Nyheter · (48m ago) Swedish Critical tone

Translated from Swedish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

TLDR

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin's Victory Day speech focused heavily on World War II achievements rather than the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
  • An expert interprets this shift as a sign of a growing rift within the Russian power structure, suggesting the war's lack of clear victories and high costs are becoming difficult to justify.
  • The absence of tanks and missile systems in the Moscow parade, along with Putin's apparent security concerns, are seen as indicators of weakness and internal challenges.

The muted focus on the Ukraine conflict during Russia's Victory Day celebrations, with President Vladimir Putin instead emphasizing World War II successes, has not gone unnoticed by analysts. Stefan Ingvarsson, an expert at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, views this as a significant 'crack' in the Russian power apparatus, potentially signaling the beginning of the end for Putin's grip.

In the moment that a crack appears, the end begins.

— Stefan IngvarssonStefan Ingvarsson interprets the shift in Putin's speech as a sign of internal weakness.

Ingvarsson points out that Putin's narrative is increasingly strained. With the full-scale invasion now exceeding the duration of the Soviet Union's involvement in World War II, and front lines largely static despite immense human cost, the justification for the war becomes harder to articulate. The lack of tangible victories and the mounting casualties create a disconnect with a Russian public that may increasingly question the necessity and expense of the prolonged conflict.

There is no victory to spin and it is not possible to explain what the war is actually about.

— Stefan IngvarssonIngvarsson explains the difficulty Putin faces in justifying the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The visual cues from the parade itself—the absence of tanks and missile systems for the first time in nearly two decades—further fuel these interpretations. Coupled with Ingvarsson's observation that Putin appeared 'terrified' of drone attacks, necessitating security measures that seemed to require a ceasefire from Ukraine and even a nod to former President Trump, these elements paint a picture of a leader under pressure. From a Swedish perspective, these developments are closely watched as they indicate potential instability within Russia and its continued impact on regional security.

That he could not ensure security on Red Square without asking Zelenskyy and Trump for a ceasefire, that is a crack.

— Stefan IngvarssonIngvarsson highlights Putin's perceived security concerns during the Victory Day parade.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Dagens Nyheter in Swedish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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