Saudi Arabia and Iraq Caught in Middle East Shadow War

A dangerous shadow war is unfolding in the Middle East, with Iran-backed Iraqi militias increasingly targeting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. This escalation, largely overshadowed by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel, poses a significant risk of direct confrontation between major oil producers. Saudi assessments indicate that roughly half of the nearly 1,000 drone attacks on the kingdom originated from Iraqi territory, striking vital oil infrastructure, including a refinery at Yanbu and oil fields in the Eastern Province.

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Around half of the nearly 1,000 drone attacks on the kingdom would have been launched from Iraqi territory.

The scope of these attacks extends beyond Saudi Arabia, with drones launched from Iraq also hitting Kuwait's only civilian airport and Bahrain. These actions demonstrate a coordinated effort by Iranian proxies to exert pressure across the region. The involvement of Iraqi militias and Hezbollah has amplified Iran's capacity to strike adversaries, offering Tehran additional options and enhanced firepower.

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Drones launched from Iraq also targeted the civilian airport in Kuwait, the country's only one, as well as Bahrain, just after US President Donald Trump announced an armistice at the beginning of the month.

The United States has voiced concerns, warning of further attacks by pro-Iranian militias and advising its citizens to avoid diplomatic missions in Iraq, which have been repeatedly targeted. The rise of these powerful Shiite militias in Iraq, emerging after the 2003 US invasion, is a complex phenomenon. Initially formed to protect Shiite communities and fight US forces, they later played a role against the Islamic State. Today, these groups, numbering around 250,000 members with substantial funding and long-range missile arsenals, maintain strong ties to both the Iraqi and Iranian governments. Their persistent threats against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, stemming from these states' relations with the US and opposition to Iran, highlight the deep-seated geopolitical tensions at play.

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The intervention of militias in Iraq and Lebanese Hezbollah has expanded Iran's capacity to hit its adversaries, offering it additional options and increased firepower.