Seoul population to shrink to 8.1 million by 2050, working-age population to plummet

Seoul's population is forecast to shrink to 8.1 million by 2050, a stark contrast to its peak and a significant demographic shift for the South Korean capital. The Seoul Research Institute projects this decline, noting that while the city's population surged past 10 million in the 1990s, it has been decreasing since then.

The decline is particularly pronounced in the working-age demographic. The population aged 15-64, which has been shrinking nationwide since 2020, saw a substantial decrease in Seoul between 2010 and 2020. After hovering above 7.5 million in the 2010-2015 period, it fell below 7 million by 2022 and is estimated to reach just 4.51 million by 2050.

Within the working-age group, the proportion of those aged 25-49 is expected to drop from 49.5% in 2000 to 42.0% in 2020, and further to 9.7% by 2050. Similarly, the share of 15-24 year olds is projected to fall from 12.0% in 2020 to 6.1% in 2050. This shrinking workforce, coupled with an increasing number of elderly dependents, is predicted to result in chronic economic stagnation, characterized by reduced consumption and increased savings.

To counteract these trends, the Seoul Research Institute suggests leveraging the elderly workforce. "Expanding employment for the elderly can be an important policy tool to offset the decline in growth rates to some extent," the institute stated. "Active adoption of measures to maintain or improve productivity by utilizing the experience and capabilities of the elderly workforce is necessary, and for this, institutional support such as extending the retirement age, re-employment, and wage peak systems is needed."

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Expanding employment for the elderly can be an important policy tool to offset the decline in growth rates to some extent. Active adoption of measures to maintain or improve productivity by utilizing the experience and capabilities of the elderly workforce is necessary, and for this, institutional support such as extending the retirement age, re-employment, and wage peak systems is needed.