SMRC Poll: Dedi Mulyadi Surpasses Prabowo's Electability

West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi has unexpectedly overtaken President Prabowo Subianto in a recent political electability survey, marking a significant shift in public support. The poll, conducted by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) between July 5 and 19, 2026, found Mulyadi leading with 35% of respondent support, while Subianto garnered 14.5%.

This finding is particularly striking given Prabowo's recent presidential election victory. "This is interesting because Prabowo, as an incumbent who recently won the presidential election, has seen such a sharp drop in electability," stated the executive director of SMRC. This marks the first time Mulyadi has outpaced his Gerindra Party chief in polls conducted during Prabowo's presidency.

The survey presented respondents with 20 potential presidential contenders and allowed for write-in candidates. Beyond Mulyadi and Prabowo, other figures with notable electability include Anies Baswedan (8.2%), Gibran Rakabuming Raka (7.7%), and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (4.9%). A significant portion, 12.8%, remained undecided or offered no answer.

SMRC surveyed 749 eligible Indonesian voters nationwide using a combination of phone interviews (83.8%) and in-person surveys (16.2%) to reflect national mobile phone user demographics. The survey has a margin of error of approximately 3.7% at a 95% confidence level. SMRC previously conducted regular electability polls before the February 14, 2024 election, accurately forecasting the Prabowo-Gibran ticket's win.

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This is interesting because Prabowo, as an incumbent who recently won the presidential election, has seen such a sharp drop in electability.