Temperatures likely to remain at record levels in 2026-2030 — UN

Global average temperatures are likely to persist at or near record highs over the next five years, from 2026 to 2030, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned Thursday.

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Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.

The WMO outlook highlights a significant probability, estimated at 75%, that the average temperature over this five-year period will surpass the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels. This projection aligns with the observation that the 11 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2015, indicating a clear warming trend.

This forecast comes as western Europe is currently experiencing a "heat dome," with countries like Britain and France breaking temperature records for May. Italy has also issued heatwave alerts in several major cities, underscoring the immediate impact of rising global temperatures.

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It is likely (86 per cent chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.

The WMO report indicates an 86% likelihood that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be warmer than 2024, which is currently on track to be the hottest year on record. An anticipated El Nino event by the end of 2026 could further increase the chances of 2027 becoming another record-breaking year. The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year recorded.

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There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.

The Paris climate accords, established in 2015, aim to limit global warming to well below 2C, preferably below 1.5C, compared to the 1850-1900 average. While temporary breaches of the 1.5C limit are considered likely in the coming years, the WMO notes it is exceptionally unlikely that any single year will exceed 2C above the pre-industrial baseline within the next five years. The 1.5C and 2C limits are typically measured over longer periods, such as 20 years.

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Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average.