Thaksin Shinawatra set for parole, loyal supporters await return

Loyal supporters of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra are preparing to welcome him as he is paroled on May 11, concluding eight months of his sentence for corruption. This marks a significant moment for the Shinawatra political dynasty, which has dominated Thai politics for over two decades. However, Thaksin's return occurs against a backdrop of a significantly altered political terrain, following the conservative Bhumjaithai Party's decisive victory in the February elections, a result that saw the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai party finish in third place.

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The good old days of Pheu Thai are completely over. Thaksin likely won’t be able to change that much.

This electoral outcome presents a considerable challenge for Thaksin, who, at 76, is expected to once again spearhead efforts to restore his family's political fortunes. Despite the recent electoral disappointment, the Shinawatra family retains a strong base of support, particularly among rural voters, though they face antipathy from urban elites. Political science lecturer Dr. Purawich Watanasukh notes that while the 'good old days' for Pheu Thai may be over, Thaksin remains a formidable figure, stating, "But Thaksin is not done with Thai politics. He’s a fighter, and the Shinawatras still have unfinished business."

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But Thaksin is not done with Thai politics. He’s a fighter, and the Shinawatras still have unfinished business.

Thaksin's journey back to public life has been fraught with political turmoil, including a coup, court setbacks, and 15 years in exile. His return to Thailand in 2023 coincided with his party forming the ruling coalition, and he received a royal pardon that commuted his sentence. However, a subsequent Supreme Court ruling meant he had to serve the remainder of his time in prison. The circumstances surrounding his return and subsequent imprisonment are seen by many as a breakdown of a deal with the conservative establishment. While he still faces a royal defamation case, his impending release is being met with anticipation by his dedicated 'Red Shirt' followers, some of whom have pledged to camp out to await his departure from prison.

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I am happy for the Shinawatra family over Thaksin’s parole.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has expressed happiness for the Shinawatra family regarding Thaksin's parole and stated he has not considered any potential political ramifications, adding that he still respects Thaksin. The Shinawatra political machine has been instrumental in producing six Thai premiers this century, including Thaksin himself, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, and his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Their continued influence, despite setbacks, underscores their enduring impact on Thailand's political landscape, a narrative that resonates deeply within the country.

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Thaksin remained a person he respected.