Trump claims Iran eager for deal, cites 34 ships through Hormuz; experts doubt claims amid rising tensions

The United States, under President Trump, has initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has significantly heightened regional tensions. Trump has publicly declared that Iran is desperately seeking a deal and pointed to a surge in vessel traffic through the strait as evidence of his administration's successful pressure campaign. He asserted that 34 ships passed through on a single day, the highest number since the blockade began, implying that Iran's economic situation is forcing it to the negotiating table.

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We received contact from the appropriate responsible parties (on the Iranian side) this morning. They very much want to reach an agreement.

However, this narrative is met with skepticism from international maritime experts and data analysts. While acknowledging a busy period for shipping, they attribute the increased traffic to vessels rushing to depart before potential complications, rather than succumbing to US pressure. Independent tracking data does not corroborate Trump's claim of 34 vessels, suggesting that many ships may have moved without their tracking devices active or were smaller vessels not captured by standard tracking. This discrepancy casts doubt on the administration's portrayal of the situation.

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We will get that dust (enriched uranium) back, or we will forcibly take it.

The blockade has created a precarious 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' scenario for oil tankers. They fear seizure by US forces if they comply with the blockade, yet also risk being detained by Iran if they attempt to pass. This has led to several vessels turning back from the strait's entrance. Furthermore, while Trump suggested other nations would join the blockade, key European allies, including the UK and Germany, have explicitly stated they will not participate, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasizing a desire to avoid being drawn into conflict.

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Yesterday (the 12th), 34 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This is by far the largest number since this foolish blockade began.

In contrast to Trump's claims of quiet negotiations, Iran's military has responded with strong public defiance. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has labeled the US blockade illegal and an act of piracy. They have issued a stern warning that if Iran's port security is threatened, no neighboring port in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman will be safe, signaling a potentially wider regional conflict if the situation is not de-escalated.

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The situation was indeed the busiest since the war, with about 30 traceable ship movements over the weekend, but this was a temporary phenomenon of ships rushing to leave immediately after the ceasefire, rather than a result of US pressure.