Trump to push China on energy buys, but analysts see hurdles

President Trump is set to press China to buy more American energy when he meets President Xi Jinping, aiming to boost U.S. exports and reduce the trade deficit. This push aligns with his "energy dominance" agenda, leveraging the current global fuel supply crunch caused by disruptions in the Middle East. The U.S., as a major oil and gas producer, presents an attractive alternative for China, which has seen its traditional supply routes from the Gulf severely impacted.

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Energy may come up in discussions about Iran, with Mr Trump likely to ask Mr Xi to help open the Strait of Hormuz and to refrain from buying Iranian oil.

However, analysts express skepticism about significant breakthroughs. China's strategic priority is energy independence, and it views the United States as an unreliable trading partner. While China might offer some short-term concessions, particularly concerning energy supplies related to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran, deeper energy cooperation is hindered by simmering mistrust and strategic competition between the two superpowers.

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Mr Trump may ask Mr Xi to purchase US oil instead, which would further Mr Trump’s interest to have Chinese commitments to buy more big-ticket items such as energy, agricultural projects and Boeing aircraft.

Past agreements, like the 2020 trade deal where China pledged substantial energy purchases, fell far short of expectations. This history, coupled with China's long-term goal of diversifying its energy sources, including non-fossil fuels, suggests that any commitments made at the upcoming summit will likely be limited. The Straits Times notes that while the U.S. seeks to pivot China away from adversaries like Russia, Beijing's focus remains on securing its own energy future.

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In the longer term, the conflict in the Middle East is likely to strengthen China’s resolve to increase its energy independence through greater use of domestic resources, especially non-fossil energy.