Trump Torn on Iran War Plan After Attacks on US Ships in Strait of Hormuz - WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump finds himself at a critical juncture regarding Iran, grappling with the dual impulses to retaliate for its nuclear program and recent attacks on U.S. ships, while simultaneously seeking to avoid a wider war. This internal conflict, as described by U.S. officials, highlights the complex geopolitical tightrope the administration walks.

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Trump prefers to negotiate with Iran in order to end its nuclear ambitions, rather than begin a new round of bombing.

While Trump has historically favored negotiation as a means to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, the recent provocations in the Strait of Hormuz present a direct challenge. The administration is reportedly weighing various military options, from strikes on Iranian targets to providing naval escorts for tankers traversing the vital waterway. This balancing act underscores the administration's strategic dilemma: how to project strength and deter aggression without triggering an uncontrollable escalation.

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The advice he took at the beginning of the war - that bombing Iran would lead to quick and easy victory - has proven false. I suspect he is now skeptical that the US should keep bombing.

Some U.S. and foreign officials believe a military response is imminent, potentially within days. However, the effectiveness and wisdom of further bombing campaigns are being questioned, with some experts pointing to the false assumptions that underpinned earlier military advice. The sentiment among some is that past bombing campaigns have not yielded the desired results, leading to skepticism about further military action.

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Trump has all the cards, and is keeping his options open. Negotiators continue to work to ensure Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly maintains that Trump "has all the cards" and is keeping his options open, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham has publicly advocated for a decisive, albeit "big, strong, painful and short" attack, arguing that Iran's actions are inconsistent with a desire for a diplomatic solution. This divergence of opinions within the U.S. political establishment reflects the ongoing debate about the best course of action in dealing with Iran.

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I supported Trump responding with a “big, strong, painful and short” attack on Iran, and that its actions were "inconsistent with a regime that wants a diplomatic solution."