Ukraine vs. Russia: War of Mutual Destruction Escalates with Infrastructure Attacks

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has escalated into a new phase characterized by the mutual destruction of infrastructure far behind the front lines. This strategic shift involves both sides targeting critical facilities, leading to significant consequences for the economy and civilian populations.

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We see that Russia has an absolute advantage in ballistic missiles. (...) Russia can now assume that Ukraine does not have enough Patriot complexes and other anti-aircraft defense systems.

Ukraine's sustained campaign against Russian oil refineries and logistics hubs has severely impacted Russia's fuel market. Production of gasoline reportedly dropped by 35% in early July, prompting fuel rationing in 80 of the country's 89 regions. The shortage is now extending to diesel fuel, critically affecting the ongoing grain harvest, with reports of uncollected crops due to lack of fuel. This economic pressure is a key objective for Ukraine, aiming to raise the costs of war for Russia.

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This increase is conditioned by two factors. The first is strikes by long-range ballistic missiles and drones, the second – by short-range drones and 'guided aerial bombs'.

Meanwhile, Russia maintains a significant advantage in ballistic missiles, posing a substantial challenge to Ukraine's air defense capabilities, including its limited supply of Patriot systems. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported a more than one-third increase in civilian casualties in Ukraine during the first six months of the year compared to the previous year. This rise is attributed to long-range ballistic missile and drone strikes, as well as smaller drones and guided aerial bombs. While Ukraine's industrial capacity is also targeted by Russian attacks, the Ukrainian offensive on Russian infrastructure, including oil facilities, demonstrates a growing capacity to inflict economic damage.

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Situation in the Samara region: the grains have ripened, but no one is harvesting them. There are similar problems in other regions. There is no fuel, and the state does not support farmers.