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US eyes long-term blockade on Iran as conflict enters 60th day with no end in sight

From Hankyoreh · (7m ago) Korean Critical tone

Translated from Korean, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

TLDR

  • Amidst a 60-day conflict, US President Donald Trump has directed his staff to prepare for a prolonged blockade against Iran, signaling a potential 'Cold War-style' standoff.
  • The Trump administration asserts that the blockade is effective, citing Iran's difficulties in storing unsold oil and its alleged attempts to contact Washington.
  • However, skepticism remains regarding the blockade's long-term viability and effectiveness, with experts suggesting Iran could endure longer than anticipated, and the situation risks escalating into full-scale conflict or remaining in a protracted stalemate.

The current standoff between the United States and Iran, now marking 60 days without a clear resolution, has entered a critical phase. President Trump's directive to prepare for a long-term blockade, as detailed by Hankyoreh, suggests a strategic shift away from immediate military action towards sustained economic pressure. This approach, perceived as lower risk than further airstrikes, aims to compel Iran's complete nuclear disarmament.

Iran is reportedly in a state of 'collapse.'

— Donald TrumpPosted on his social media platform, Truth Social, commenting on Iran's situation.

While the US administration claims the blockade is yielding results, with Iran reportedly struggling to manage its oil reserves and seeking dialogue, a significant degree of skepticism persists. Experts like Richard Nephew, a former US State Department official involved in sanctions design, caution that Iran possesses alternative export routes and has shown resilience in the past. The failure of intense bombing campaigns to yield concessions raises questions about whether a blockade alone can achieve the desired outcome.

Iran can hold out much longer than expected through methods like oil smuggling.

— Richard NephewFormer Senior Coordinator for Sanctions Policy at the U.S. State Department, interviewed by Hankyoreh.

The situation is further complicated by internal Iranian power dynamics and the upcoming US midterm elections. The ongoing negotiations are stalled, with Iran requesting more time and mediators expressing pessimism. Internal factions within Iran, particularly hardliners, hold significant sway, making the negotiation process complex. This prolonged 'frozen conflict,' characterized by financial sanctions, maritime interdiction, and diplomatic stalemate, carries substantial political and economic risks for the Trump administration, potentially leading to sustained energy price hikes and the ever-present threat of renewed hostilities.

The current situation, where bombing has stopped but there is neither war nor agreement, characterized by financial sanctions, maritime interdiction, and diplomatic stalemate, is defined as a 'Cold War phase.'

— AxiosDescribing the current state of US-Iran relations.
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Originally published by Hankyoreh in Korean. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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