US Intelligence Warns Cuba Regime Change Could Mirror Iran, Not Venezuela

U.S. intelligence agencies are cautioning that any potential regime change in Cuba could unfold more like the scenario in Iran than the one experienced in Venezuela, according to sources with access to the intelligence reports cited by The New York Times.

As Washington increases pressure on Havana, American officials have reportedly been seeking a Cuban leader who could mirror the role of Venezuela's Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed power after the U.S. detained Nicolás Maduro. However, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that hardline factions, akin to those in Iran, would likely be the ones to take power in Cuba should Raúl Castro, a still influential political figure, be removed.

The CIA has reportedly established a secret task force focused on Cuba, signaling the U.S. administration's intent to escalate its campaign against the communist state. The plan appears to aim more at altering the existing regime than a complete overthrow. A similar strategy was reportedly considered for Iran before recent conflicts, with the intention of installing a leader amenable to Washington. However, identified Iranian candidates were reportedly killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.

The U.S. previously removed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January, with Delcy Rodríguez taking his place. Meanwhile, the U.S. has imposed a blockade on Cuba, severely impacting fuel supplies and leading to widespread power outages and economic collapse on the island. The U.S. has drastically reduced available fuel, exacerbating the strain on the country's aging power plants.

It remains unclear whom the White House would prefer to see leading Cuba, and practical options appear limited. While the Cuban government might support a descendant of Fidel Castro, such a candidate is deemed unacceptable to the United States. The Trump administration might consider another member of the Castro family, Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, known as "Raulito" or "El Cangrejo" (The Crab), who is reportedly Raúl Castro's nephew and former bodyguard.