Vietnam Stocks: VN-Index Hits New Peak Amidst Investor Losses, What's Next?

The Vietnamese stock market is experiencing a peculiar phenomenon: the VN-Index is hitting new all-time highs, yet a significant number of investors are seeing their portfolios decline. This "market up, account down" paradox, as described by analysts at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), stems from the index being heavily influenced by a select few blue-chip stocks, while many widely-held "national stocks" are being left behind.

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The market is currently in a very difficult phase for the majority. Most investors who bought the "national stocks" were left behind when the index was pulled up mainly by a few trụ stocks.

This divergence is creating a sense of weariness and frustration among ordinary investors. However, VPBankS's Director of Market Strategy, Tran Hoang Son, points out that this very imbalance presents opportunities. Many fundamentally sound stocks remain at attractive price levels, poised to benefit from potential catalysts such as increased public investment, a resurgence in foreign capital, or a return of domestic liquidity.

Son draws parallels to historical market behavior, citing gold's periods of stagnation followed by long-term growth and the S&P 500's occasional flat spells before upward trends. He quotes Warren Buffett, emphasizing that "time is the most important factor" in investing, likening it to planting a tree that doesn't grow overnight. In the current low-liquidity environment, he advises against short-term trading and instead advocates for focusing on value stocks and adopting a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy for long-term growth in tandem with the economy.

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This divergence is creating opportunities as many good stocks are still at attractive price levels. As soon as there is a push from public investment, foreign capital recovery, or returning cash flow, results will soon come.

Technical analysis from Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) and Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) also suggests continued upward potential for the VN-Index, albeit with recommendations for cautious, partial investment in quality stocks during market dips. SHS notes strong performance in specific sectors like real estate, ports, and banking, but cautions about the market's valuation not being overly attractive. Tien Phong Securities (TPS) forecasts potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking pressures, with the 1,860-point level acting as a key psychological support, while maintaining a positive medium-term outlook.

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Time is the most important factor. Investing is like planting a tree, it cannot grow in a day or two.