Wang Yi visits Myanmar, meets Aung San Suu Kyi; observer calls it 'calculation, not sentiment'

The recent visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Myanmar, which included a discreet meeting with the detained Aung San Suu Kyi, has sparked considerable discussion, particularly among regional observers like Japanese journalist Yaita Akio. While Beijing officially described the encounter as a simple check-in on an "old friend," Akio argues this is far from a gesture of personal goodwill. Instead, he posits it as a shrewd, calculated move by China, reflecting a significant shift in its strategy towards Myanmar.

Historically, during the previous military junta's rule, China's high-level engagement with Myanmar largely bypassed Aung San Suu Kyi. Now, the sudden outreach suggests Beijing recognizes the evolving situation on the ground. With the Myanmar military's control weakening and pro-democracy forces gaining ground, China appears to be hedging its risks. By engaging with Suu Kyi, China is securing a potential channel to the opposition, ensuring its significant economic interests, such as oil and gas pipelines and ports, are not jeopardized should the political landscape change.

Furthermore, this engagement serves as a strategic signal to European nations. In the eyes of Europe, Aung San Suu Kyi remains a potent symbol of democracy. By highlighting its connection with her, China aims to project an image of being a capable mediator in the "Myanmar issue," especially at a time when transatlantic relations are strained and US focus on the region may be waning. This move allows Beijing to position itself as a key player with influence over Myanmar's future, potentially creating leverage in its diplomatic dealings.

Akio also suggests this outreach is an attempt by China to mend its image. Previously perceived as solely backing the military regime, this engagement with a prominent democratic figure aims to signal that China is open to dialogue with all parties, not necessarily indicating a change in values but a tactical adjustment. This calculated diplomacy, especially with potential high-level US-China meetings on the horizon, positions China to use the Myanmar situation as a bargaining chip, ensuring it has multiple avenues of influence and negotiation ready.

From a regional perspective, this maneuver underscores China's pragmatic approach to foreign policy, prioritizing national interests and strategic positioning. The meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, therefore, is not about nostalgia for an "old friend" but a forward-looking strategy to secure influence and prepare for future negotiations.