West Asia conflict could reverse Nepal’s human development gains: UNDP

The United Nations Development Programme's latest report paints a grim picture for Nepal, highlighting its extreme vulnerability to external shocks. The ongoing conflict in West Asia, far from being a distant issue, directly threatens to unravel years of hard-won progress in human development. Our nation's reliance on remittances from migrant workers in the Gulf, coupled with disruptions to critical agricultural inputs like sulphur for fertilizers, means that instability abroad translates directly into hardship at home.

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Nepal could lose between a week and a month’s progress in the Human Development Index due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, as the country remains heavily exposed to external demand shocks, remittance inflows and imported inputs, according to a United Nations Development Programme report.

The UNDP's preliminary assessment underscores the precariousness of Nepal's economic situation. The potential for a significant drop in remittance inflows, a lifeline for countless families, is a major concern. Furthermore, the escalating costs and uncertain supply of fertilizers will undoubtedly strain our agricultural sector, which is the backbone of our economy and food security. This is not just an economic forecast; it's a stark warning about the potential for increased poverty and diminished quality of life for ordinary Nepalis.

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In Nepal, employment vulnerability is closely tied to overseas labour migration, with around 80 percent of migrant workers going to Gulf countries and Malaysia.

While international media might focus on the geopolitical ramifications of the West Asian conflict, the UNDP report brings the human cost into sharp focus for Nepal. The findings, expressed in terms of lost human development progress, are a sobering reminder of how interconnected our world is and how vulnerable developing nations like ours are to global crises. The report's scenarios, projecting thousands potentially pushed into poverty, demand urgent attention and proactive policy responses to mitigate these severe impacts.

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In lower middle-income countries like Nepal, an estimated 1,553 people could be pushed into poverty under Scenario 1, while the number rises to 3,994 under Scenario 2.