Why Bennett, Lapid's union actually strengthens Netanyahu's hand in next elections - opinion

The recent merger between Naftali Bennett's party and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid was ostensibly designed to address the perennial fragmentation of the Israeli opposition, plagued by too many leaders, egos, and parties. On paper, the union—with Bennett leading and Lapid stepping aside—presents a unified front focused on "national repair, unity, maturity, and responsibility." Yet, the complex reality of Israeli politics, driven by blocs, identity, and deeply ingrained instincts, suggests this merger might serve as an unexpected gift to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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But Israeli politics is not decided on paper. It is decided by blocs, by identity, instinct, fear, memory, and where voters believe they belong.

Netanyahu's potential electoral advantage stems not from widespread adoration, which has waned, nor from the fading impact of the October 7th massacre. Instead, it arises from the country's pervasive exhaustion, anger, and a yearning for change. Elections, however, are not solely contests of anger; they are also about the direction that anger is permitted to flow. For months, Bennett's potential return offered a specific fantasy to anti-Netanyahu Israelis: a credible right-wing alternative. This was a figure who could appeal to voters disillusioned with Netanyahu without demanding they abandon their right-wing identity.

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It is not because Netanyahu is beloved as he once was. He is not. It is also not because October 7 has disappeared from the national bloodstream. It has not.

Bennett alone represented a threat Netanyahu could not easily counter—a bridge for soft-right voters, religious Zionists, and traditional Israelis who were angry with the current coalition but hesitant to embrace the "culturally foreign" political universe of Lapid's Yesh Atid. By merging with Lapid, Bennett appears to have closed the door on these crucial voters. While they may dislike Netanyahu, many are unwilling to see removing him as a step into Lapid's political orbit. This strategic misstep transforms Bennett from a potential bridge into a component of a bloc that may alienate the very voters he needed to attract, thereby simplifying Netanyahu's task of consolidating his base and potentially winning the next election.

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Israel is tired. Israel is angry. Israel is looking for something else.