Why cargo cannot quickly shift from the Danube to rail or roads when the river falls: Drought hits Europe’s economy

When the Danube becomes too shallow, Romania cannot simply move its cargo quickly onto railways or roads. The country relies on inland waterways more than any other European Union member, and drought is now disrupting transport, energy and industrial activity.

Eurostat data show that inland waterways accounted for 18.9% of Romania’s freight transport, measured in tonne-kilometres, in 2023. The share was 11.7% in the Netherlands and 8.7% in Bulgaria, compared with an EU average of 1.6%. That dependence makes the Danube’s water level a direct concern for Romanian cargo operators.

As the river gets shallower, vessels cannot carry their normal loads. On some Romanian sections of the Danube, operators have reduced cargo by as much as 40%, according to Coface. Conditions on the Rhine have been even more severe, with some barges carrying only about 20% of their usual loads at the beginning of August.

The Danube entered September with a flow far below normal. At Baziaș, on September 1, the flow measured 1,550 cubic meters per second, compared with a long-term September average of about 3,800 cubic meters per second. The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management forecast another decline. At the beginning of August, the flow had fallen to about 1,300 cubic meters per second, while the long-term August average is around 3,900.

Lower loads also raise transport costs because river shipping is designed for large volumes. During the severe drought of 2018, the cost of river transport increased by about 2.5 times. Low Danube levels also led to the controlled shutdown of both units at Romania’s Cernavodă nuclear power plant.