Will AI replace me? Taub Center economists investigate effects on employment, joblessness

The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel has released a crucial study examining the evolving landscape of employment in the age of artificial intelligence. Our research, conducted by Michael Debowy, Prof. Gil Epstein, and Prof. Avi Weiss, objectively scrutinizes how AI is reshaping who becomes unemployed, even if its overall impact on joblessness remains limited for now. This isn't just a theoretical exercise; it's about understanding the real-world consequences for Israelis navigating a rapidly changing job market.

Our findings reveal a significant shift: AI is concentrating its impact on occupations that once offered strong job security, low layoff rates, and persistent vacancies. These were the very fields that boasted exceptionally low unemployment rates just a few years ago. Now, they are experiencing the most pronounced increases in relative unemployment. As Prof. Epstein notes, "The era of hi-tech workers’ immunity is over." AI is disrupting established career paths, and it's the "juniors" – those early in their careers – who are often the first to pay the price as veteran staffers adapt with AI's assistance.

“

The era of hi-tech workers’ immunity is over. Our data shows that AI is ripping the cards. It explains about a fifth of the increase in programmer unemployment and locks the door mainly on young people. While veteran staffers become more efficient with the help of the machine, the ‘juniors’ are the first to pay the price. Those who wait for a change and don’t rush to upgrade their skills here and now will simply be left behind.

Ironically, the study suggests that AI's immediate disruptive force may not heavily impact lower-status blue-collar workers or those in hands-on service roles. However, a wide array of white-collar professions, from bookkeepers and lawyers to market-research analysts, administrative staff, and even non-specialized physicians and computer scientists, could face significant displacement. The implications are clear: competition for jobs is intensifying, and individuals who fail to adapt their skills to the AI era risk being left behind. This necessitates a proactive approach from policymakers to activate assistance systems and redesign training programs to support the newly unemployed.

“

We see here a process in which technology is not only replacing working hands but is completely changing the rules of the game. The meaning for the unemployed is that competition for existing jobs is becoming much tougher, and those who don’t adapt their skills to the AI era may find themselves pushed out. At the policy level, the state must already activate assistance systems for the newly unemployed and design p