With a ceasefire in Lebanon, Trump has forced Netanyahu’s hand – again

The recent developments concerning the conflict in Lebanon underscore a recurring pattern of US President Donald Trump dictating terms to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, effectively forcing his hand on critical strategic decisions. Despite Netanyahu's public declarations of continuing the war against Hezbollah, Trump's unilateral announcement of a ceasefire, to commence at midnight, left Israel with little choice but to comply. This latest intervention, which Israelis learned about through a social media post rather than from their own leadership, illustrates Trump's powerful influence over Israeli policy.

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a little breathing room.

This situation is particularly striking given the historical context of close US-Israel coordination. While Netanyahu often emphasizes this alliance, Trump has repeatedly used his position to compel Netanyahu into actions that may not align with Israel's immediate military objectives. The article points to at least five such instances, including previous conflicts with Iran and a ceasefire with Hamas, where Trump's declarations have shaped Israel's strategic path. The current 10-day temporary ceasefire in Lebanon is presented as the tenth 'war' Trump claims to have resolved, further emphasizing his self-proclaimed role as a global peacemaker.

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We are still fighting them. It is not over yet.

From an Israeli perspective, as reflected in publications like Haaretz, this dynamic raises significant questions about national sovereignty and strategic autonomy. Military analysts note that Trump has become the 'final, if not the exclusive, arbiter' of the conflict's conclusion. While the US is a crucial ally, the extent to which external declarations, particularly those made via social media, can unilaterally alter the course of a war initiated and prosecuted by Israel is a matter of deep concern. The article suggests that in each instance where Trump has intervened, Israel has fallen short of achieving the decisive victory it sought.

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I have been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th.

This reliance on Trump's approval, especially when it bypasses direct diplomatic channels between leaders (like the proposed call between Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, which Aoun declined), highlights a unique aspect of US foreign policy under Trump. It prioritizes swift, often public, declarations over traditional diplomatic processes. For Israelis, this means navigating a foreign policy landscape where the US president's pronouncements can abruptly alter the strategic calculus, forcing difficult decisions and potentially compromising long-term objectives for short-term, externally imposed ceasefires.

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At this stage of the war, which he entered into largely due to Netanyahu’s persuasion, Trump has become the final, if not the exclusive, arbiter.