World's largest fertilizer company: '10 billion meals could disappear weekly due to Iran war'

A stark warning has emerged from the global fertilizer industry: the ongoing conflict in Iran could trigger a catastrophic food crisis, potentially wiping out 10 billion meals from the global supply each week. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, one of the world's largest fertilizer producers, stated in a BBC interview that the disruption to fertilizer supplies, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers crucial for crop growth, will severely impact food production worldwide. This is not a distant threat; it is a present danger with immediate implications for global food security, especially for the most vulnerable populations.

“

Due to the current situation, up to 500,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer are not being produced globally. Due to this fertilizer shortage, up to 10 billion meals may not be produced each week.

Our analysis at Hankyoreh points to the interconnectedness of global trade and conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, is central to the fertilizer trade, with a significant portion of global fertilizer volume passing through the Persian Gulf. Blockades or disruptions in this region directly translate to shortages in the global market. Holsether estimates that up to 500,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer are currently not being produced due to the situation. This scarcity is driving up prices dramatically; the cost of granular urea has nearly doubled since the conflict began, and the World Bank projects fertilizer prices to rise by over 30% by 2026. This price surge makes it increasingly difficult for farmers, especially in developing nations, to afford essential inputs, threatening not only current harvests but also future agricultural productivity.

“

If nitrogen fertilizer is not used, the yield of some crops can decrease by up to 50% in the first year.

The implications are dire. Without nitrogen fertilizer, yields for certain crops can drop by as much as 50% in a single year. While potassium and phosphate fertilizers can sometimes be substituted or their application deferred, nitrogen is indispensable for key crops like corn, wheat, and rapeseed. The World Bank has noted that fertilizers have not been this difficult to procure since 2022, significantly impacting farm incomes and jeopardizing future yields. The FAO's Food Price Index has already shown a sharp increase, with vegetable oil and sugar prices reaching multi-year highs. This situation risks creating a vicious cycle: conflict leads to fertilizer shortages, which lead to reduced food production and soaring prices, ultimately culminating in widespread hunger. Holsether's concern about a "food scramble" between developed and developing nations is a chilling prospect, as the poorest will inevitably bear the heaviest burden. This crisis underscores the fragility of our global food system and the devastating ripple effects of geopolitical instability.

“

Fertilizers have not been this difficult to purchase since 2022, eroding farm incomes and threatening future agricultural production.