Air Cargo Demand Drops 4.8% in March as Passenger Traffic Rises

The global aviation industry presented a mixed picture in March 2026, with air cargo demand experiencing a notable decline while passenger traffic continued its steady ascent. Figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reveal a 4.8% year-on-year drop in cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, and a corresponding 4.7% decrease in cargo capacity. This downturn signals challenges for cargo operators grappling with geopolitical instability and escalating fuel costs.

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Air cargo demand fell 4.8 per cent in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to the war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post-Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline.

International cargo operations bore the brunt of this decline, recording a sharper drop of 5.5%. IATA Director General Willie Walsh attributed this significant slump primarily to severe disruptions at major Gulf aviation hubs, exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The usual seasonal slowdown following the Lunar New Year festivities also contributed to the dip. However, Walsh expressed optimism about the broader freight market, noting that underlying demand trends appear robust and are supported by recent upward revisions to global trade and GDP projections by the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund.

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The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains.

In contrast, the passenger segment demonstrated resilience. Global demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, saw a 2.1% increase, even as total capacity contracted by 1.7%. This led to an improved global load factor of 83.6%, indicating fuller flights. Domestic travel was the primary growth engine, surging by 6.5%, while international travel experienced a slight contraction of 0.6%. The Middle East region's airlines were particularly affected, with a staggering 60.8% fall in international traffic due to airspace restrictions and regional instability, underscoring how geopolitical crises continue to impact aviation's recovery.

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Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite the crisis in the Gulf region.