Datafolha: Flávio's difficult period maintains Lula's lead, but the PT candidate tests his ceiling

Lula maintains a five-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round presidential election, according to a Datafolha poll. This advantage has solidified as Bolsonaro has faced a series of public relations crises, including the "Dark Horse" scandal and scrutiny over a contract involving his law firm. These difficulties have kept Bolsonaro on the defensive, particularly on corruption issues, a traditional strength of the right-wing in Brazil.

Despite Bolsonaro's struggles, Lula has not significantly increased his support, raising questions about his electoral ceiling. The poll indicates Lula's popularity and voting intentions have remained largely stagnant for months. While Lula has gained ground in the Southeast region, where Bolsonaro's bloc previously held an advantage, the race remains tight, with Bolsonaro performing well among voters who identify as neither Lula nor Bolsonaro supporters.

The "Dark Horse" scandal and a dispute with his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, have exposed key vulnerabilities for Flávio. The controversy surrounding a contract with Banco Master has put him on the defensive regarding corruption. Furthermore, his alignment with the US and skepticism towards electronic voting machines, core tenets of Bolsonaro's base, may alienate centrist voters crucial for victory. The initial reconciliation with Michelle Bolsonaro also raises doubts about Flávio's ability to win over women voters, a demographic that was critical in his father's past elections.

In a hypothetical second-round matchup, centrist voters have increasingly favored Lula over Flávio Bolsonaro since the "Dark Horse" scandal. In May, Flávio held a lead among these voters, but Lula has since overtaken him. Lula's rejection rate among these centrist voters is higher, and his government's approval rating is below average, suggesting that this segment remains a key battleground for both candidates.