“Expect cheap operations that are difficult to attribute clearly,” Jacek Siewiera says on sabotage in Poland and Germany

Jacek Siewiera says the growing number of sabotage incidents in Poland and Germany should no longer be treated as a series of isolated accidents. In his view, they signal that Russia has entered a more aggressive phase of its hybrid war against Europe.

Each incident still requires its own investigation and evidentiary assessment, Siewiera said. But the emerging pattern is already clear enough to suggest that Europe may face many more such operations.

He pointed to pressure on critical infrastructure, the logistics supporting Ukraine, the defense industry, transport, energy and society’s resilience. These targets, he said, form part of the confrontation he warned about three years ago.

In December 2023, Siewiera said that countries on NATO’s eastern flank had three years to prepare for a confrontation. He presented that warning not as a dramatic prediction, but as part of a continuing national strategy: recognizing risks, preparing institutions and preserving resilience before the threat becomes obvious to everyone. “In the coming months, we will sink deeper into the confrontation I warned about. Distance from the front line does not protect against the effects of war,” he said.

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In the coming months, we will sink deeper into the confrontation I warned about. Distance from the front line does not protect against the effects of war.