Hardliner Victor Cha: Denuclearization a Distant Goal, Proposes Arms Control Talks

Victor Cha, a senior figure at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former official in the George W. Bush administration, has presented a significant re-evaluation of U.S. policy toward North Korea. His call for a fundamental shift away from the long-held 'denuclearization first' approach, acknowledging it as a distant goal, signals a potential pivot in how Washington might engage with Pyongyang.

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North Korea's denuclearization has become a goal that is difficult to achieve in a short period of time.

Cha's argument, articulated in a recent Foreign Affairs article and further elaborated in discussions with Korean correspondents, highlights the perceived failure of decades of U.S. policy centered on Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization (CVID). He points to North Korea's continued advancement of its nuclear arsenal, estimating it possesses around 50 warheads and the capacity for further production, as evidence that the previous strategy has yielded little tangible progress. This perspective resonates with a growing sentiment that the U.S. may be overextending itself by confronting multiple adversaries simultaneously, including China, Russia, and Iran.

From a South Korean perspective, Cha's proposal to pursue 'cold peace' and focus on arms control, rather than immediate denuclearization, presents a complex dilemma. While acknowledging the practical difficulties of achieving immediate denuclearization, South Korea remains deeply invested in the ultimate goal of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. The idea of accepting North Korea as a de facto nuclear state, even temporarily, carries significant security implications and could alter the regional balance of power. The proposal to focus on limiting further proliferation and managing crises, rather than demanding immediate disarmament, might be seen as a pragmatic adjustment by some, but it risks legitimizing North Korea's nuclear status in the eyes of many.

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The United States needs to consider a 'cold peace' with North Korea.

Cha's suggestion to build a 'bridge of trust' through arms control talks, rather than solely focusing on CVID, is particularly noteworthy. This approach aims to reduce immediate threats, such as limiting intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) deployment and halting further nuclear material production, which could offer more achievable short-term security benefits. However, the challenge lies in securing buy-in from allies like South Korea and Japan, who may have differing threat perceptions and strategic priorities. The U.S. will need to provide robust security assurances and potentially enhanced deterrence capabilities to assuage their concerns, especially given the historical context of inter-Korean relations and the ongoing security challenges on the peninsula.

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Focusing only on the slogan of denuclearization, which has yielded no results while North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear capabilities, is not a good way to protect the United States.

Furthermore, Cha's assessment of the current U.S.-South Korea alliance as being in a phase of 'modernization' rather than facing existential threats, as some feared during the Trump administration, provides a more optimistic outlook on alliance management. He believes this stable foundation could facilitate policy adjustments. However, the mention of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung being 'surprisingly pragmatic' and potentially more flexible on U.S.-North Korea talks without South Korea's full involvement suggests a nuanced understanding of Seoul's evolving political landscape. The unique perspective from Seoul is that while pragmatic engagement is necessary, the ultimate goal of denuclearization remains paramount for regional stability and must not be abandoned, even if the path to achieving it is long and arduous.

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Denuclearization is a goal that cannot be abandoned, but it has now become a 'distant future goal'.