Heatwaves grip Europe as El Niño looms, threatening global temperatures

Europe is currently grappling with a summer of relentless heatwaves and severe droughts, a situation exacerbated by long-term global warming. Simultaneously, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that the influence of the El Niño phenomenon on global temperatures is yet to fully manifest, with a significant uptick expected from late this year.

"With El Niño already established in the Pacific, we expect to observe a rebound in global temperatures. The highest ones tend to occur after it has reached its maximum, normally between November and January," explained John Kennedy, the WMO's head of climate information. He noted that the current heatwaves in Western Europe are more directly linked to long-term global warming caused by the greenhouse effect, combined with persistent atmospheric pressure patterns across the Northern Hemisphere.

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Western Europe endured its warmest June-July period on record. Globally, July was the second warmest on record, with average temperatures 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. Europe is now facing its fourth heatwave of the summer, with temperatures soaring above 35-36 degrees Celsius in countries like France, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

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With El Niño already established in the Pacific, we expect to observe a rebound in global temperatures. The highest ones tend to occur after it has reached its maximum, normally between November and January.

The high temperatures are accompanied by a stark lack of precipitation, visibly impacting major European rivers such as the Seine, Rhine, and Danube. "In some parts of Europe the deficit is large and has been accumulating for several months, so a summer storm will not be enough to restore river levels and soil moisture," said WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis. Countries like Hungary, Serbia, and others along the Adriatic coast estimate needing an additional 250 to 350 millimeters of rainfall to normalize the deficit.

While Europe contends with heat and drought, other regions are experiencing the opposite extreme. Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent are facing heavy monsoon rains, with risks of flooding anticipated this week.

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In some parts of Europe the deficit is large and has been accumulating for several months, so a summer storm will not be enough to restore river levels and soil moisture.