Kerosene Shortage Looms: German Airports Warn of Millions of Flight Cancellations

The German airport association ADV is sounding the alarm over a potential crisis in air travel, warning of significant flight cancellations and escalating prices. The root cause, according to ADV Managing Director Ralph Beisel, is a looming shortage of kerosene, a direct consequence of disrupted oil transports through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. This disruption has sent the price of aviation fuel soaring, forcing some airlines to already cancel flights.

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It is to be feared that, especially with low-cost airlines and less significant tourist destinations, further flights will be cancelled.

Beisel's stark assessment suggests that the best-case scenario for 2026 is a stagnation in passenger numbers, while the worst-case scenario could see a capacity reduction of up to ten percent at some airports. This translates to a potential impact on 20 million passengers nationwide, with some destinations becoming inaccessible and others significantly more expensive. The situation is particularly concerning for low-cost carriers and less popular tourist destinations, which are likely to bear the brunt of these cuts.

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The best-case scenario for 2026 is a stagnation in passenger development. In the worst-case scenario, a capacity reduction of ten percent threatens at some airports.

While the German government, through Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder, maintains that the problem is primarily one of price rather than supply, the reality for airlines appears more precarious. Lufthansa, for instance, has only guaranteed fuel supplies until mid-June, leaving its long-term operational capacity uncertain. This cautious, almost hesitant, approach from the government contrasts sharply with the urgent warnings from the aviation industry.

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We have a price problem, but no problem with the supply.

From our perspective at Der Spiegel, the government's seemingly relaxed stance is concerning. While we acknowledge the price issue, the potential for widespread flight cancellations and capacity reductions poses a significant threat to Germany's connectivity and economic activity. The industry's reliance on a volatile geopolitical situation for a critical resource like kerosene highlights a systemic vulnerability that requires more than just assurances. The government needs to provide a clearer strategy to ensure stable fuel supplies and mitigate the impact on passengers and the broader economy, rather than downplaying the supply concerns.

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The supplies and deliveries are secured until mid-June. What comes after that, he left deliberately open.